![]() Both steps are necessary to properly net out counterfactual successes from observed successes. ![]() We apply the earnings boost owing to a degree to those scholars whose graduation was caused by the nonprofit. Second, we compare the earnings of graduates to non-graduates based on publicly available census data, matching on student demographic characteristics. The result is the number of scholars whose graduation was caused by the nonprofit. ![]() Our estimates are drawn from rigorous social science studies of similar scholarship programs. First, we compare the estimated postsecondary graduation rate of its scholars to that of comparable students who did not receive a scholarship (the “counterfactual”). We estimate the increase in income caused by a nonprofit's scholarship program in two steps. To determine causation, we take the outcomes we observe and subtract an estimate of the outcomes that would have happened even without the program (i.e., counterfactual outcomes). We don't know if the observed changes were caused by the nonprofit's program or something else happening at the same time (e.g., a participant got a raise).
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